Last week, the New York State
Education Department updated a portion of its website that provides data
regarding the make-up of student enrollment in individual school districts. The
database breaks down everything by gender, race, disabilities, economics, and
grade levels.
I took a long look at the information that applied to my school district, Royalton-Hartland. To me, the real take home from the report was the sharp decline in enrollment in my school system, which is, undoubtedly, an outcome of an aging local population and all of the young people moving out-of-area or out-of-state for greener pastures economically.
What specifically caught my
attention was how, in recent years, the grade levels dropped off to numbers
below 100 students.
For the 2014-2015 school year, the
sixth through twelfth grades saw a peak enrollment of 128 and a low of 100,
averaging out at 115 students per grade. Those are what you would consider
relatively normal numbers for Roy-Hart, even harkening back to my 1993
graduation when there were over 120 people in my class.
It was the kindergarten through fifth numbers that I found concerning, as they were incredibly low by my school’s standards. The average for those six grades in the 2014-2015 school year was 90 students. Compared to sixth through twelfth, that's a drop of 25 students per class or 22%. That statistic is scary in itself, but it’s nothing compared to the concern elicited by the enrollment numbers for last year’s kindergarten class: 79 students.
We are not alone in that regard.
I took a look at the numbers for a few other districts in Niagara County and,
comparing apples to apples, found these disturbing declines in average class size for
sixth through twelfth versus kindergarten through fifth in the 2014-2015 school
year: Barker 23%, Wilson 21% and Newfane 12%.
Obviously, student enrollment is
on the decline not only at Roy-Hart, but across the county, and it's trending badly.
We are, without a doubt, heading into an educational crisis. The thing is, we
already experienced one (and we are, for most districts, still in one) as an
outcome of the revenue losses of the Great Recession when sports and arts were
cut, and superintendents, resources and even students were shared
across districts.
But, the crisis that we will be
feeling over the next 5 to 15 years will far rival what we just experienced. As
these kids age into high school and classes are smaller, untold numbers of
teachers will lose their jobs, portions of facilities will be made obsolete,
sports teams will have unsustainable rosters, and the way that we’ve been
always been doing things will change dramatically. Students, parents and whole
communities will have to change their expectations, even their identities. It
will be a major culture change and, for many, an uncomfortable one.
The writing is on the wall, so,
in the coming years, don't scratch your head when school boards and school
officials have to make different, interesting and difficult decisions
concerning budgets, services and consolidation. As a matter of fact, right now
is the time when you as a parent, taxpayer or concerned citizen should be
preparing for that by asking yourself a question that school boards are already
asking themselves: What will the future hold?
From the 04 January 2016 Greater Niagara Newspapers
From the 04 January 2016 Greater Niagara Newspapers